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And in parts of Asia, there is considerable overcapacity in some manufacturing industries.
This occurred just at the time that other structural changes in the economy were making jobs less secure.These low inflation outcomes globally and in Australia are coexisting with low wage outcomes. The first – and the most conventional – explanation is that the low inflation reflects the economic slack in the global economy.In many industrialised countries, wage growth has been close to multi-decade lows and below what historical relationships with the unemployment rate would suggest. Economic growth has generally disappointed since the global financial crisis, weighed down by an overhang of debt.Nominal interest rates around the world have been at record low levels for some years and there has been extraordinary balance sheet expansion by a number of the world's major central banks.Yet, at the same time, inflation rates in most advanced economies remain below target.The second factor is a self-reinforcing dynamic originating from the decline in headline inflation caused by the fall in commodity prices, including oil prices.
With headline inflation rates so low, many workers have agreed to smaller wage increases than would have otherwise been the case, especially where expectations of future inflation are also low.
There are also concerns in some economies that inflation expectations have declined too far and are perhaps stuck at levels that are too low.
This is quite a different world to the one that has existed over the past half-century.
This third graph (Graph 3) shows inflation rates for Australia.
The two measures shown are headline CPI inflation and the trimmed mean measure.
This second graph (Graph 2) shows a time series of headline and core inflation rates averaged across the major advanced economies. While headline inflation has picked up a little recently, the outcomes over recent years have been the lowest for many decades, with the exception of a short period during the global financial crisis.